THE BOY WHO CRIED HORMUZ: TRUMPS LIE-ATHON TIMELINE
A running tally of Trump’s Iran “deal / ceasefire / Strait of Hormuz” claims vs. reality
Right. Strap the fuck in mates, this one’s longer than a Lord of the Fecking Rings trilogy with the Harry Potter collection thrown in for good measure.
We didn’t set out to build a timeline. We set out to write one story about a ceasefire. Then the toasted pumpkin faced cunt changed his mind before we’d finished the first paragraph. Then he changed it again. Then his Defence Secretary stood up and declared the Strait of Hormuz “open” on the exact same morning his press secretary called any closure “completely unacceptable.” Same building, same day, opposite planet. And that’s when it clicked: you cannot write a story about this, because there is no story. There’s just a man with a phone, a deadline he’ll never honour, and an oil market that shits itself every time his thumbs start moving.
So we did the boring thing. The thing he’s betting none of you will do. We wrote it all down.
Every “deal next week.” Every “Tuesday, 8PM.” Every “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” and “we don’t even need the strait” and “largely negotiated” and “final throes.” Date-stamped. Sourced. Sat right next to what Iran actually said back, which, spoiler, was usually some version of get fucked, the strait stays shut.
Here’s the carnage:
At least 38 separate times he’s told you a deal was done, close, or days away. That’s not our count. That’s CNN’s, tallied between 23 March and 9 June. Thirty-eight.
At least 7 hard deadlines set and then quietly pissed away: 48 hours became five days became ten days became “Tuesday” became a ceasefire he “extended” so many times the word stopped meaning anything.
The strait sat choked shut from the 28th of February for over three months. That’s not a negotiating position. That’s the result.
Brent went from about 75 bucks to north of 140, the highest since 2008, while he workshopped his next Truth Social post.
This is not a guy negotiating. This is a guy running an Olympic-level game of political ping-pong with the global oil price as the ball, and a worrying number of people who bought oil futures on a Tuesday somehow doing very nicely out of it. We’re not saying it’s insider trading. We’re saying we’d love to see the trades.
That’s what this is: the receipts. The full, ugly, time-stamped record. And here’s how it ends, or doesn’t. After 38 promises, he finally got his deal. Signed it at a Versailles dinner on the 17th of June, gold pen and all, and called it an “unconditional surrender.” Three weeks later the tankers were burning in the strait again, the US had snapped the sanctions back on, and by the 8th of July he was at a NATO podium calling it “over” and calling them “scum.” The deal he cried about for 110 days was dead inside three weeks.
And we’re not stopping. This is a living list. Every time he cries Hormuz, we add a line: date, what he said, what Tehran said back, what oil did. He can move the goalposts as many times as he likes. We’ve bolted ours to the fucking floor.
Bookmark it. Share it. And the next time some bloke down the pub tells you “nah, they’re close to a deal,” send him here.
IFLA. No advertisers. No mates in the oil game. Just the receipts.
A running tally of Trump’s Iran “deal / ceasefire / Strait of Hormuz” claims vs. reality. Living document. Last updated: Wed 8 Jul 2026. The active war ran 110 days (28 Feb to the 17 Jun Islamabad Memorandum); three weeks later the ceasefire has collapsed, Trump has declared it “over,” and the bombing has resumed. IFLA appends new entries at the bottom of the timeline and bumps the scoreboard.
🏓 THE SCOREBOARD
(as of Wed 8 Jul 2026, day 131, deal signed and already collapsed)
The headline number: CNN counted at least 38 separate times Trump claimed a deal was imminent between 23 March and 9 June. Our own categories below are the receipts behind it.
Deal “close / done / signing / continuous” claims: at least 15 logged in full on top of CNN’s 38, across four months of “next week.” He finally signed one on 17 Jun. It held for three weeks.
Iran’s own government denying the talks he describes even exist: 5 (25 May, 29 May, 1 Jun, 3 Jun, 11 Jun). On 11 Jun, hours after he said the deal was “approved at the highest level,” a senior Iranian official said Tehran had agreed to no MOU and no framework.
Deadlines and ceasefire extensions set then blown or reset: at least 7 (48hr to +5 days to +10 days to “Tuesday 8PM” to Apr 6 to a 2-week ceasefire made open-ended around Apr 21, then re-upped as a fresh 60-day extension on 6 Jun).
Times the strait was declared “OPEN” vs reality: Hegseth said commerce would flow on Apr 8. It didn’t. Iran “declared it open” Apr 18, then fired on ships. The 17 Jun deal reopened it toll-free, traffic crept back below pre-war levels, and by 7 Jul Iran was striking tankers in it again. Open, shut, open, shut, across five months.
Peace declared mid-airstrike: on 6 Jun the Secretary of State called the war “over” the same week Iran fired ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain and the US bombed radar sites in the strait. On 8 Jul Trump declared the ceasefire “over” himself.
The one deal he finally signed: landed 17 Jun at Versailles, sold as an “unconditional surrender.” Dead inside three weeks: missile exchange 28 Jun, tankers struck 7 Jul, 80-plus US “punishment” strikes and sanctions snapped back 7 Jul, ceasefire declared “over” 8 Jul.
Distinct Trump escalation threats: at least 11 (”civilization will die tonight,” obliterate the biggest power plant first, “TWENTY TIMES HARDER,” “Death, Fire, and Fury,” back to the stone ages, “blow up” Oman, sign “Documents of Surrender,” “blow the hell out of them,” “I may keep going,” 11 Jun’s “VERY HARD TONIGHT” and a vow to seize Kharg Island, and 8 Jul’s pledge to “cut out cancer early”).
The bill: at the peak the strait was choked shut for over three months, dated Brent past $140 (highest since 2008), the World Bank cutting global growth and the ECB hiking rates over war-driven inflation. The June deal brought oil down to the mid-$70s; the moment Trump said “over” on 8 Jul it jumped more than 5% again, Brent to $78.09, WTI to $74.23.
THE TIMELINE
Pre-war warm-up
17 Feb. Iran: Khamenei rejects Trump’s terms; says the US Navy “can be sunk.” Wikipedia
20 Feb. Trump: claims a 10-day “deal or we attack” deadline. Iran: oil minister floats selling oil to the US if a deal lands. Wikipedia
25 Feb. Iran: Araghchi says a deal is “within reach.” Wikipedia
28 Feb. Trump: announces “major combat operations in Iran.” Khamenei killed. War on. CRS report
The shutdown + the price shock
8-9 Mar. Iran chokes the strait; Brent rockets toward $120, then dated Brent past $140. Trump: predicts the war ends “very soon.” TradingEconomics · mexc
~9-10 Mar. Trump: “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” if oil flow is stopped, plus “Death, Fire, and Fury”; later tells CBS the war is “very complete” and oil eases. Yahoo
16 Mar. Trump: begs a coalition (China, Japan, France, UK) to escort ships; warns NATO of a “very bad” future. World: muted. Japan and Australia both say no ships. Al Jazeera
21-22 Mar. Trump (Truth Social): 48 hours to FULLY OPEN or the US obliterates power plants, biggest one first. Iran: Ghalibaf rebuffs and counter-threatens; Tehran warns even buyers of US Treasuries could be “legitimate targets.” mexc · TradingEconomics
26 Mar. Trump: extends the deadline 10 days, insists talks are “going very well” and he’s not desperate; Witkoff confirms a 15-point list went to Tehran via Pakistan. Euronews · NPR
2 Apr. Trump (speech): no plan to open the strait; says “We don’t need it. We haven’t needed it and we don’t need it.” Oil tops $110; analyst calls the speech “a disaster.” CNBC
5 Apr. Trump (Truth Social): “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!” Read as a third deadline punt; critics break out TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). mexc
6 Apr. Trump: threatens power plants and bridges, but says there’s a “good chance” of a deal. Iran: rejects the ultimatum, won’t talk under pressure. News On Air
The “ceasefire” that never opened the lane
7 Apr (~6:32pm ET). Trump: after warning a “whole civilization will die tonight,” announces a 2-week ceasefire conditioned on the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of Hormuz. Iran: Araghchi agrees if attacks stop, with passage “via coordination” subject to technical limits. Al Jazeera · Fox
8 Apr. Trump admin: Hegseth says the strait is now open and commerce will flow. Same morning, White House: Leavitt calls any closure “completely unacceptable.” (Both. Same day. Strait shut.) News On Air · Euronews
10 Apr. Trump: Iran’s doing a “very poor job”; “not the agreement we have.” Iran: IRGC reportedly charging tolls; Ghalibaf says no talks till Lebanon ceasefire. Fox live
13 Apr. Trump: US launches a counter-blockade, hitting ships bound for Iranian ports. Commons Library
21-22 Apr. Trump: unilaterally extends the ceasefire; strait stays shut. Iran: Ghalibaf says reopening is “impossible” while the blockade stands. CNBC
May: the “basically done” remix
5-6 May. Trump: pauses guiding stranded ships “to finalize a deal,” keeps the blockade. Lloyd’s: no transits since 4 May. NPR · CBS
7 May. Trump: lift the blockade and the strait would be “OPEN TO ALL, including Iran.” Iran: Rezaei demands the US pay reparations first. CNBC
11 May. Trump: rejects Iran’s counteroffer: “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” Iran: vows to “never bow.” CNBC
12 May. Trump: calls the ceasefire “unbelievably weak” and Iran’s ideas garbage; Aramco warns of a 2027 recovery. CNBC
15 May. Trump (after the Xi summit): “I am not going to be much more patient.” Brent +3% to ~$109. CNBC
23 May. Trump: a deal is “largely negotiated,” announced shortly: MOU first, then 30-60 days. Iran: negotiator says no compromise on “legitimate rights.” CNBC
25 May. Trump: says he’s lifting the blockade for no tolls + access to nuclear sites + Iran’s uranium; had just threatened to “blow up” Oman over a fee system. Iran: denies any negotiations are even happening. Middle East Eye
29 May. Trump: leaves the Situation Room with no “final determination”; demands Iran never get a nuke and the strait open now. Iran: Fars says the post contradicts the agreement’s text. CNBC
1 Jun: five moods, one day
1 Jun (morning). Iran: Tasnim says Tehran is suspending talks and the exchange of documents over Israel’s Lebanon strikes, which it calls a ceasefire violation; vows a complete blockade of Hormuz and activation of the Bab el-Mandeb. The IRGC warns any ship transiting with help from “hostile extra-regional forces” will be treated as “an imminent security threat.” CBS · Yahoo/Bloomberg
1 Jun. Trump (ABC): a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen Hormuz is reachable “over the next week,” with “a few more points” still to settle; claims Iran hadn’t told the US it was walking. CNN
1 Jun. Trump (interview): says he “couldn’t care less” if the talks collapse. TIME
1 Jun 3:02pm. Trump (Truth Social): “Iran really wants to make a deal.” Blames the “Dumocrats” and “unpatriotic Republicans” for chirping at him to move faster or slower or go to war or not; tells everyone to “sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end, It always does!” [Truth Social screenshot, timestamped]
1 Jun (evening). Trump (Truth Social): about-face hours after Iran walked, posts “talks are continuing, at a rapid pace.” Bloomberg/Yahoo
2 Jun: demand a white flag
2 Jun 11:29am. Trump (Truth Social): roughly 20 hours after “rapid pace,” demands total Iranian capitulation: navy “resting at the bottom of the sea,” the military marching out of Tehran with hands up “shouting ‘I surrender, I surrender’” while waving the white flag, leadership signing “Documents of Surrender.” Rounds on the “Dumacrats” and “Fake News Media” for going “absolutely CRAZY.” [Truth Social screenshot, timestamped]
2 Jun. Iran: no reply. [none]
3 Jun: the “what talks?” split-screen
3 Jun (small hours). Trump (Truth Social): calls reports that the two sides stopped talking false, insists the conversations have been “going on continuously” every day for the last 5 days, and tells Iran it’s time, one way or another, to make a deal after 47 years. [Fox News / Jerusalem Post]
3 Jun. Iran: confirms none of it. Tehran’s own state media, Tasnim and Fars, had said the day before that Iran suspended messaging with the US through the Pakistani mediators over Israel’s Lebanon campaign. So this time he isn’t tripping over his own moods, he’s contradicting the other party, who say the “continuous” conversation flat out isn’t happening, and branding that Fake News. [PBS / Washington Times]
6 Jun: “the war’s over,” say the two blokes still bombing each other
6 Jun. Trump / Rubio: Rubio tells reporters the war with Iran is “over,” even as the two sides keep trading missile and drone fire. Trump’s line is that the deal is basically there: negotiators reached a tentative agreement a week earlier to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and start a new round of nuclear talks, it just needs changes he is now demanding. [AOL / Al Jazeera]
6 Jun. Reality: on Friday night Iran fired 7 ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain, the US intercepting 6 and the 7th failing to reach its target. The US shot down Iranian drones aimed at the strait and the Gulf allies, then struck Iranian coastal radar sites, including an island in the strait, in reply. The deal he says is all but signed? He’s demanding unspecified changes, and Iran has shown no public sign of agreeing. [NPR / ABC / CNN]
7 Jun (day 100): “very close to a deal,” or he’ll “blow the hell out of them”
7 Jun. Trump (NBC, Meet the Press, aired Sunday to mark 100 days, taped Friday as US forces intercepted Iranian missiles over the Gulf): lays out two options for Iran’s nuclear program, a negotiated deal he says he’s “very close to,” or military action, vowing to “blow the hell out of them” and calling that the easier path. He hardens the terms, demanding any deal bar Iran from developing, buying or acquiring nuclear material, tighter than the 2015 JCPOA. Asked whether the US is at war with Iran, he says Iran has been largely decapitated and reframes a 100-day conflict that has killed more than 7,000 people as a “military exercise.” [Newsweek / NBC / Tampa Free Press]
7 Jun. Iran: no response to the interview. Tehran has shown no public sign of signing the deal he says is nearly done, and the messaging suspension flagged on 1 Jun has not been publicly lifted.
8-9 Jun: “final throes,” then “I may keep going”
8 Jun. Trump (after the NBA Finals in New York): says the deal is in its final stages and reachable in “two or three days,” with the strait reopening immediately on signing; a draft has reportedly been sent to the White House and is “preliminarily acceptable.” CNBC
9 Jun. Iran: rejects the administration’s new nuclear proposal outright and says it will send a counteroffer through Omani mediators; military spokesman Shekarchi vows Iran will answer any threat. Wikipedia
9 Jun. Trump: tells Fox there’s little progress and threatens Iran’s power plants and bridges for stringing the US along, warning “I may keep going.” That evening he boasts on Truth Social that a secret May mission pushed more than 100 million barrels and 200-plus ships through the strait, and that America, not Iran, controls it, declaring it over for Iran. CENTCOM runs fresh strikes on radar near Hormuz after a US Apache is downed. Jerusalem Post
11 Jun: “VERY HARD TONIGHT” at breakfast, “signing this weekend” by dinner
11 Jun (morning). Trump: the day opens with a third round of US-Iran strikes that week, after which Iran’s foreign ministry declares the 8 April ceasefire “meaningless.” Trump vows the US will hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT,” promises bigger and more powerful action, and says he wants to take Iran’s oil, naming Kharg Island as his target, while telling Fox the two sides are still negotiating.
11 Jun (evening). Trump: handbrake. He cancels the strikes and posts that the talks have been approved at the highest level of Iranian leadership, that a deal to end the war is essentially done with documents nearly final, and that a signing could happen in Europe this weekend. The blockade stays on until it is signed. Per Axios, the reversal followed a draft agreed by Qatari mediators and Iranian negotiators, and Netanyahu got no heads-up. [Axios]
11 Jun. Iran: contradicts him within hours. A senior Iranian official tells MS NOW that Tehran has agreed to no memorandum of understanding and no framework, undercutting the claim that it was all approved at the top. Earlier its foreign ministry had called the very ceasefire he’s now extending “meaningless.” [MS NOW]
11 Jun. Off the battlefield: the bill lands. In a single day the World Bank cuts its global growth forecast over the war, the European Central Bank hikes rates to fight war-driven inflation, and US producer prices post their biggest yearly jump since 2022.
12-18 Jun: he finally gets the deal
12 Jun. Both sides: Pakistan announces the US and Iran have agreed the final text of a peace deal, a 60-day ceasefire framework. After 38 promises, one of them lands. Wikipedia
14 Jun. Both sides: the memorandum to end the war is announced and digitally signed by representatives; Trump says he has authorised lifting the US blockade. Iran says the draft has it agreeing not to build a nuke, with the US letting it dilute its enriched uranium at home. Wikipedia
17 Jun. Trump: signs the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum remotely, doing it over dinner with Macron at the Palace of Versailles after the G7, Pezeshkian signing in Tehran. Same day he warns that if he doesn’t like the deal, the US will “go right back to dropping bombs.” The framework reopens Hormuz toll-free for 60 days, ends the blockade, and waives (not cancels) the oil sanctions. Islamabad Memorandum
18 Jun. Both sides: the MOU takes effect. Pakistan says Iran will reopen Hormuz “instantly” and the blockade ends “immediately.” CENTCOM confirms the naval blockade is lifted. Wikipedia
19-28 Jun: the ink isn’t dry
21 Jun. Trump: the US formally waives sanctions on Iran for 60 days, restoring Tehran’s oil revenue stream. Islamabad Memorandum
28 Jun. Iran: despite the deal, fires ballistic missiles and drones at the US-run Ali Al Salem base in Kuwait and the Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain, retaliating for US strikes on five Iranian coastal sites. Iranian state TV says passage through Hormuz still requires coordination with Iran. The same day, the two sides agree to stop exchanging attacks. Wikipedia
1-7 Jul: the unravelling
1 Jul. Both sides: indirect talks in Doha make “positive progress,” Vance says things are “going well,” and strait traffic picks up but stays well below pre-war levels. The market treats the ceasefire as permanent; oil drifts down toward the mid-$70s. CNN
7 Jul. Iran: strikes three commercial vessels transiting Hormuz, including the Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayat (engine-room fire) and the Saudi-flagged Wedyan, ignoring the toll-free-passage deal it signed three weeks earlier. Fox
7 Jul. Trump: answers with “punishment” strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets and revokes the licence that let Iran sell oil, snapping the sanctions back on. Iran’s top command vows a “crushing response.” CNN
8 Jul (today): “it’s over”
8 Jul. Trump (NATO summit, Ankara): declares the ceasefire finished, “For me? I think it’s over,” brands Iran’s leaders “scum,” sick and vicious, calls dealing with them a waste of time, and says the US has to “cut out cancer early.” The deal he sold last month as an “unconditional surrender” is dead inside three weeks. CBS · CNN
8 Jul. Iran: launches a drone attack on Bahrain’s Isa Air Base, and its army chief Sayyari warns Iran will make its coastline a “hell” for US forces. CNN
8 Jul. Oil: jumps more than 5% on the “over” comment, Brent +5.3% to $78.09 and WTI +5.4% to $74.23, up off the ceasefire lows the moment he opened his mouth. CBS
STAY TUNED
And that’s where it sits today: five months, 38 promises, one signed deal, and a bloke back at a NATO podium calling the people he “surrendered” last month “scum” while the tankers burn. He got the thing he cried about since March, held it up at Versailles like a trophy, and it was dead before the gold pen was dry. Then he stood up and blamed them for it. Same sunburnt Etch A Sketch, same shake, same reset.
This list is not finished. It was never going to be, because the dropkick is constitutionally incapable of shutting his gob for longer than it takes to contradict himself, and now he’s contradicting a deal with his own signature on it. So here’s the only deal in this whole saga anyone’s actually honoured: every time he cries Hormuz, we log it. He moves the goalposts, we bolt another line to the floor. Date, what he said, what Iran said back, what oil did.
Stay tuned. He’s already promised the next one. He always does.
IFLA. Texas Mom, Maizy, Gman & Mitzy.
FOLLOW THE FUCKING MONEY HONEY
It’s so embarrassing to be an American. OMG
Spot on. There appears to be some Industrial strength pump and dump going on.